Are Rallies and Parades An Accurate Predictor of Election Results?

According to most of the polling in 2016, many were predicting then Candidate-Trump did not have a chance.

In defense (if there is any) of the polling companies, Secretary Clinton did, in fact, defeat Candidate Trump with the popular vote. The one aspect that nobody reported on was the Electoral College, which is, of course, what you have to win to be declared President of the United States. And, as we all know, President Trump fairly soundly defeated Clinton in the Electoral College.

Then many of my friends and colleagues pointed to the “enthusiasm-factor” by the sheer size of Trump’s rallies. An example was one in particular in Alabama at a football stadium that had (some estimates) in excess of 40,000 in attendance. Granted, Alabama is a hard-core conservative state, but still, to have over 40,000 and possibly 50,000 attend a political speech is saying something. 

This election, we could very well be witnessing “political Deja-Vu.” For instance, some polling has President Trump down by 7-9% in Pennsylvania. Yet, look at this recent rally (last week) in Johnstown, Pennsylvania.

Over the past few weeks, Trump received the same numbers, if not more in Latrobe, Pittsburg, Middletown, and more.

If ever there was to be a contrast for “enthusiasm-gap,” this would be it. Just last week in Phoenix, Arizona, the former Vice-President, and his running mate Kamala Harris held a rally. This was the reporting on the event.

The very humorous part of this was the reporter and the Biden camp trying desperately to “cover” for the candidate’s lack of attendance. “The Biden campaign wants to keep attendance to less than 50-people because of COVID.” This was the excuse and is the reasoning behind all of Biden’s failed attendance at nearly all of his events. 

I have a different theory. I believe that Joe is so “out-of-touch” that he is incapable of holding a “true-townhall” or rally without the use of a teleprompter. He must have the questions pre-prepared, then he must have the answers placed on a teleprompter to respond properly. And the even more tragic part of this is his campaign staff trying to cover for him.

This, of course, begs the question, why would the Democrats push so hard for a 77-year-old man with undeniable signs of mental decline to be their nominee? You also have to ask yourself why he would choose someone so cruel and rude to him during the primary? Let’s be real here, Kamala Harris was insulting, crude, and very rude to Joe Biden during those debates.

But I don’t want to get too far off-track here. When watching Biden’s campaign events, one has to ask the other big $64 question. What is the real reason they are not pushing these events? And if they are pushing them, and this is all he is getting, then something is truly wrong for him. 

Rush Limbaugh had a theory last week on his show that Biden’s camp doesn’t want people attending because of “who” would show up. You would have the Unicorn crowd, the tree huggers, the LGBTQ community, Antifa, BLM, and a whole-host of oddballs greeting him. The optics would be horrible for the evening news, and he couldn’t afford that. This begs the last question, why is he wasting money on jet fuel for 50 people when he could stay home, phone it in, and read the prompter? 

Now take a look at this past weekend’s attendance to watch his motorcade. Folks, this happened in Newport Beach, California. Yes, California, of all places. This display is almost unbelievable. Could California actually be in play?

The turnout for anything Trump is almost mind-blowing from the stadiums to the airport hangers and the rivers, lakes, and inland waterways in Florida. 

If crowd turnout and enthusiasm is truly an indicator as to “how an election” will play out, then it might be a given that once again, between the polling companies and the media, they may again have it all wrong.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I can tell you from experience that people are waiting longer to get into a Trump rally than there is a Lady Gaga concert. 

During the latter stages of his first campaign, Barack Obama had pretty much the same thing going on. The media was rapid to point out that his enthusiasm was something that had never been seen prior or since. All the pundits praised his popularity and predicted a crushing defeat for John McCain and Mitt Romney. 

Why are they not saying the same for President Trump? I can tell you that he is attracting as many if not more people to an outside event at an airport than most if not all candidates do at indoor coliseums. People are standing in the hot sun in Arizona, and the chilly fall winds with rain in the upper Midwest. 

Another indicator not often talked about is the viewership online for his events. Americas Voice News and Right Side Broadcasting have YouTube channels plus Facebook pages where his campaign stops are often broadcast live. In nearly everyone, the viewership of these broadcast numbers in the six-figures for people watching.

If polls can publish 692 registered voters were polled today, and this is supposed to reflect the results of an election whereby 150,000,000 votes are cast, I’m inclined to go with the 50-voters at Biden’s rallies and the 25,000 at Trump’s rallies. 

Get the popcorn ready; we’re about to witness another “Deja-Vu.” That being Rachel Maddow weeping on election night. 

By Ken Crow
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